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The cryptocurrency prediction platform, Polymarket, temporarily saw betting odds on the approval of pending spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) slump to 70% on the 3rd of January. The “yes” odds on whether a spot Bitcoin ETF would be approved by the 15th of January fell from $0.89 on the previous day, to $0.70 at 1:30 p.m. UTC on the 3rd of January, and subsequently rose to $0.84. These odds are determined by user positions, representing a diverse range of individuals’ opinions rather than a single viewpoint. Up to this point, the cumulative amount bet on this market reached $912,569.
Analyst Markus Thielen from Matrixport may be responsible for this decline in odds. He voiced his belief that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may reject all spot Bitcoin ETFs for political reasons. Thielen gave critical commentary on the proclivity of the SEC Commissioners, a majority of whom are Democrats and frequently considered to be anti-cryptocurrency, and emphasized the SEC chair, Gary Gensler’s, hostility towards cryptocurrency. He also pointed out that the current applications do not meet a crucial requirement but did not disclose what that requirement is. Despite this, Polymarket’s odds still remain a strong indicator of impending approval at 84%, closely mirroring Bloomberg ETF analysts’ prediction of a 90% chance the SEC will approve at least one ETF by the deadline of January 10th.
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