Last updated on August 8, 2023
Bitcoin has been trying to break the significant resistance level at $30,000, but so far, it has been unsuccessful. As a result, the price has declined towards the 100-day moving average. Despite this, the current price is within a critical range, and a breakout could lead to a significant movement in the price.
On the daily chart, the 100-day moving average has been acting as a support level, preventing further declines. However, it has not been able to push the price back above $30,000 in recent months. Additionally, there is a prolonged divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, suggesting a possibility of a downside break. If this happens, the price could move towards the 200-day moving average at around $27,000. This indicator has previously acted as support and could potentially push the price higher. On the other hand, if the price manages to climb back above $30,000, it may trigger a rally towards the $38,000 resistance zone in the coming weeks.
In the 4-hour chart, the situation for Bitcoin looks interesting. After a correction in early July, the price has reached the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, which serve as crucial support levels. If the price finds support here, it could enter a new bullish phase and surge higher. However, there is also a possibility of a break below this range, which would be concerning. In that case, the price could rapidly decline towards the $25,000 support level in the short term.
In terms of on-chain analysis, the “Exchange Whale Ratio” is currently at its lowest level, implying that there is a low presence of large players depositing funds into cryptocurrency exchanges. Historically, when this ratio rebounds from a low level, it tends to have an adverse effect on the price of Bitcoin. Examples include February 2018 and May 2021, when the ratio increased and the price peaked before declining. Although the Exchange Whale Ratio has been steadily declining since Q4 2022 without a significant drop in BTC’s price, it is important to monitor this ratio closely as it could rebound following historical patterns, potentially affecting the trajectory of BTC’s price.
Overall, Bitcoin is facing resistance at $30,000 and the market is at a critical point. The price could break above this level and rally towards $38,000 or break below and decline towards $27,000 or even $25,000. On-chain analysis suggests that a rebound in whale activity on exchanges could potentially lead to a downward trend in BTC’s price. It is essential to closely monitor these factors to gain insights into the future direction of Bitcoin’s price.
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