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Will Soaring Bitcoin Profits Trigger a Market Boom by 2026?
Bitcoin continues to grapple below the crucial $90,000 mark, reflecting a market struggling to regain bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. This ongoing hesitation has led to a growing sentiment of skepticism, with many analysts expressing concerns about the risk of a prolonged bear market extending into 2026. As fears linger, traders exercise caution and exhibit reduced risk appetite while they await clearer signals for the next market direction.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, some investors remain optimistic, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a transitional phase rather than experiencing a full trend reversal. On-chain metrics, particularly the “Supply in Profit” indicator, provide valuable insights into the current market dynamics. Notably, this metric has decreased dramatically from over 19 million BTC in October to approximately 13.5 million BTC following the recent price correction. This decline has resulted in the short-term 30-day moving average falling below the longer 90-day average, creating a gap of around 1.75 million BTC.
Historically, a similar configuration appeared in 2022 before an extended bearish phase. However, a key distinction this time is the elevated state of the 365-day moving average. Observing the 30-day average, it seems to have formed a local bottom in mid-December, indicating potential stabilization. Analysts argue that if Bitcoin can maintain its current price levels or higher, this stabilization could set the stage for a renewed bullish phase as early as 2026.
Supply in Profit Signals a Critical Inflection Window
In a recent analysis, an expert shared a forward-looking chart that tracks the convergence of the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric. This convergence could signal a significant structural shift in the market. The model estimates when a bullish configuration, defined by the 30-day moving average crossing above the 90-day average, might emerge. Currently, the gap between these two moving averages is narrowing at a rate of approximately 28,000 BTC per day.
This convergence isn’t driven by a sharp recovery in the Supply in Profit metric but rather by a mechanical decline in the 90-day moving average. As the peak values from October roll out of the calculation window, downward pressure on the longer average creates a temporary boost for convergence. This effect is expected to persist through late January. If conditions remain stable, projections indicate a potential bullish cross could form between late February and early March. However, this forecast remains sensitive to price fluctuations.
Analysts estimate that supply elasticity to price stands at 1.3x, meaning a 10% price decline could lead to a 13% drop in Supply in Profit. Therefore, the $70,000 level becomes critical in this scenario. If Bitcoin falls below this threshold, the 30-day moving average would likely decline faster than the 90-day average, invalidating the convergence thesis and reopening the possibility of a prolonged recovery similar to 2022.
Bitcoin Price Struggles Below Key Resistance
Currently, Bitcoin trades below the pivotal $90,000 level, indicating a structurally weak market despite signs of short-term stabilization. The recent price action shows BTC consolidating after a significant drop from the $100,000–$105,000 range, which transformed prior support into resistance. This rejection signals a loss of bullish control, entering a deeper corrective phase.
Price patterns reveal that Bitcoin compresses below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the ongoing bearish trend. Attempts at upward movement are likely to encounter significant supply pressure. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average, positioned well above the current spot price, emphasizes how far Bitcoin has drifted from its longer-term equilibrium.
While selling intensity has eased since the November sell-off, the lack of strong bullish volume suggests that buyers remain hesitant. The recent oscillation between $85,000 and $90,000 resembles a consolidation range rather than a definitive reversal, indicating indecision in the market. Until Bitcoin reclaims the critical $90,000 level, downside risks persist, with $85,000 serving as near-term support. As the market evolves, the broader structure continues to favor range-bound or corrective price action.
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