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Will Bitcoin’s Rally Survive the Week? What Analysts Predict About BTC’s Next Move
In today’s bitcoin news, Bitcoin (BTC) faces significant challenges even after the Federal Reserve’s recent announcement of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The cryptocurrency has experienced a notable decline of nearly 4% within the past 24 hours, dipping below the local range low for the first time in a week. This shift raises concerns among analysts, who emphasize that the upcoming weekly close is crucial for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
On Thursday, Bitcoin fell below the previously reclaimed $110,000 mark, reaching a one-week low of $106,700. Since July, BTC has oscillated within the $108,000 to $120,000 price range but has struggled to regain the upper thresholds following a correction earlier in October.
Market Volatility and Historical Patterns
Market analyst Ted Pillows states that such volatility is expected, attributing it to Bitcoin’s historical price behavior since the beginning of Q3. Historically, after the last three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, Bitcoin has experienced drops of 6%-8%. However, it has also set new all-time highs (ATHs) shortly after. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin typically finds its local bottom 5-9 days post-meeting, followed by a rapid recovery and subsequent rallies.
As Bitcoin retests the $106,000 level, Pillows suggests that a similar recovery could be in store. However, he cautions that to avoid a more significant pullback, Bitcoin must reclaim the $113,500 level in the coming days. A weekly close below this critical threshold could increase the likelihood of a larger correction.
Key Resistance Levels and Future Outlook
Another analyst, Rekt Capital, emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin closing the week above $114,500 to convert this level into support. He notes that, given the current market dynamics, a volatile retest of this level would be acceptable as long as the price closes above it by week’s end. Confirming the ~$114,000 range as support could signal a re-entry into the trading range, leading to consolidation and a potential breakout toward the range high of ~$119,000.
Michaël van de Poppe identifies $112,000 as a pivotal area to surpass before reaching new ATHs. This level has acted as a significant resistance point over the past few weeks. A successful breakout could pave the way for a retest of the $119,000-$120,000 zone. Conversely, failing to break through this resistance may drive the price down toward the $103,000 region.
Historical Performance and Volatility Trends
Daan Crypto Trades further adds that Bitcoin is currently “playing ping pong” between its key levels and will likely continue its range-bound movement until a boundary breaks. Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with 8 out of the last 12 Novembers closing in positive territory and a median return of 10.82%, according to CoinGlass data.
Moreover, the final months of the year often see significant market pivots, whether bullish or bearish. Analysts anticipate that volatility will remain a key theme as 2023 draws to a close.
For those interested in following Bitcoin’s journey and other cryptocurrency updates, check out our crypto news section. As we navigate these uncertain waters, it remains crucial to stay informed and prepared for potential market shifts.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s performance this week holds critical implications for its end-of-year rally. Traders and investors alike should monitor key resistance and support levels closely, as they may dictate BTC’s next significant move in the market.
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