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Will Bitcoin Follow Its 2021 Crash Pattern? What You Need to Know to Avoid Losses
In a recent surge, Bitcoin climbed above $105,000 in mid-morning European trading on Tuesday. This recovery comes after a dip below $100,000, marking its first since May. However, according to veteran technician Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend), this rebound may be short-lived.
Bitcoin Price Mirrors 2021
Quantum Ascend highlights the striking similarities between Bitcoin’s current price trajectory and its 2021 pattern. This pattern, characterized by a sharp rise, a peak, a fall, and a secondary peak, is followed by what he describes as an ABC corrective sequence. In 2021, this sequence did not bottom out until after a significant downturn.
The Predicted Path Ahead
The technician’s analysis suggests a potential relief rally aiming for the $107,000-$108,000 range before another downturn. This downturn is expected to push Bitcoin into the “pain box,” a zone between the 0.702 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements. Historical patterns suggest that this could see Bitcoin falling to between approximately $96,500 and $92,000.
A Closer Look at Market Dynamics
Quantum Ascend breaks down the current drop as the C-wave of a larger flat pattern, which typically includes a five-wave impulse. He anticipates a temporary uplift, potentially boosting altcoins, before another decline. This pattern mirrors the market movements from July 2021, where a brief surge was quickly followed by a sharp fall, often triggered by major news events.
Macro Outlook and Strategic Moves
The broader market sentiment remains fragile, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap at $92,000 attracting bids from average retail investors—a situation Quantum Ascend likens to a “washing machine,” where professional traders might manipulate the market. Despite these challenges, he remains optimistic and has been actively purchasing during dips, advising followers to dollar-cost average into the market.
Long-term Prospects and Final Thoughts
Quantum Ascend sets a cautious yet hopeful long-term price target of $132,000, foreseeing a significant rally if Bitcoin can sustain its momentum past the current hurdles. He calls the upcoming months “our moment,” urging investors to remain resilient. As the market awaits the final verdict on this cycle, his advice is clear: stay informed, stay cautious, and be prepared for volatility.
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