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Is the crypto bull run over? This question has resurfaced as Bitcoin cautiously climbs back above the $100,000 mark, while altcoins lose momentum. Adam Bakay, a systematic trader known on Twitter as @abetrade, provides a nuanced view in his latest market analysis from June 22. His insights reveal a market caught between robust institutional interest and technical challenges, offering a cautiously defensive stance amid geopolitical uncertainties.
According to Bakay, the technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend on monthly and weekly timeframes. “We have not breached any significant swing lows, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has held up during the April pullback,” he asserts. However, the inability to reach new all-time highs, similar to those seen in 2021, raises concerns, especially as major players like BlackRock accumulate substantial Bitcoin holdings, now around 3.5% of its total supply.
Bakay remains cautious, opting for short-term trades to navigate the uncertain market landscape. He outlines potential scenarios: a rebound to solidify the $100,000 support level, likely if Middle East tensions do not escalate, or a fallback to the $97,000-$95,000 range where significant technical support lies. Despite these possibilities, Bakay is not leaning towards short-selling, given the recent signs of clear spot bid interest and a drop in open interest.
The options market is hinting at caution too, with a 25-delta risk reversal skew around -5, signaling a negative trend but not yet reaching panic levels. On Ethereum, Bakay comments sharply on its failed breakout, attributing it partly to the premature hype around “DeFi Summer 2025.” He points out that Ethereum’s support near $1,800 could be crucial, underlining the high volatility and the current oversold conditions which might hint at a potential upside reversal.
Altcoins have been struggling, with no significant rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins as anticipated. Instead, there appears to be a shift towards crypto-related equities, reflecting a more ETF-driven macro trade. Bakay notes that even strong performers like Solana are losing ground, with key levels to watch at $100 and below.
In his closing remarks, Bakay emphasizes the complexity of current market conditions, influenced heavily by geopolitical events. He advises against aggressive trading, suggesting that waiting for positive signs and news might be a wiser strategy in these turbulent times.
As of now, Bitcoin trades at $101,847, and the market remains in a delicate balance. Bakay’s analysis underscores the need for cautious trading and tight risk management, suggesting that the bull run, while still technically alive, faces significant headwinds.
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