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Bitcoin’s Toughest Time Over: Why Q4 Could Be a Game-Changer
An analyst has explained how the worst could be behind for Bitcoin, and Q4 may bring back bullish momentum if history is anything to go by. Q3 has historically been the worst time for Bitcoin investors, as noted by Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, in a recent post on X. According to Edwards, the third quarter has typically been the most challenging for Bitcoin, with average returns standing at +5% and median ones at -4%. In comparison, Q2, which is the second-worst performing quarter, has seen better returns, with averages and medians of +27% and +7%, respectively. This historical data suggests a recurrent pattern that could have serious implications for Bitcoin traders and investors.
However, the fourth quarter tells a different story. Bitcoin often witnesses its best performances during Q4, with average returns at +89% and median returns at +57%. Last year, the cryptocurrency saw a notable uplift of nearly 57% during this period. “If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin,” Edwards commented, emphasizing that the best times might lie ahead. With Q3 coming to a close, the crypto community is closely watching how Bitcoin will perform in Q4. Historical patterns are giving traders some hope, after a challenging third quarter.
Adding depth to Edwards’ perspectives, on-chain analyst Checkmate provided an intriguing analysis of daily price performances during bear and bull markets. His recent post on X features a chart revealing price movements in these two market conditions. According to the chart, approximately 28% of bear market days saw the asset trending higher than +1%, while around 38% of such days experienced declines greater than -1%. The remaining 34% of bear market days saw Bitcoin remain within a narrow range of +1% to -1% from the previous day’s price. This symmetrical distribution is slightly tweaked during bull markets, where Bitcoin showed a +1% rise on 33% of days and a decline of over -1% on 26% of days.
Both Edwards and Checkmate highlight intriguing aspects of Bitcoin’s price behavior over time, potentially offering valuable insights to traders. Recently, Bitcoin experienced a burst of bullish momentum, with its price jumping more than 5% in the last 24 hours, reaching the $60,900 mark. As Q3 transitions to Q4, all signals point to potential optimistic developments on the horizon for Bitcoin and its investors.
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