Bitcoin CryptoMarkets Q4Rally CryptoInvesting MarketTrends OnChainAnalysis BullishMomentum BTCPrice
## Bitcoin’s Hardship Ending: Q4 Could Be Transformative
An analyst has suggested that Bitcoin’s rough period might be nearing its end, heralding a potentially transformative fourth quarter (Q4). Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, explained in a recent post on X how Q3 has historically been a challenging period for Bitcoin investors, with lower returns compared to other quarters. His analysis illustrated that the third quarter (Q3) has often been the least profitable time of the year for Bitcoin, with an average return of just +5% and a median return of -4%. For comparison, Q2, the second-worst-performing quarter, still boasts higher averages with +27% and median returns at +7%.
Edwards highlighted a significant point about Q4 historically being Bitcoin’s best quarter. With average and median returns of +89% and +57%, respectively, Q4 has consistently delivered the highest returns for Bitcoin. “If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin,” Edwards mentioned, adding that “the best lies ahead.” Last year, for instance, Bitcoin saw almost a 57% increase during Q4. With the current year’s Q3 drawing to a close, it’s intriguing to anticipate how Bitcoin will perform once this period ends and Q4 begins.
Complementing Edwards’s perspective, another analyst known as Checkmate provided insights into Bitcoin’s daily price movements across bear and bull markets. He shared a chart showing that during bear markets, around 28% of days saw Bitcoin’s price rise by more than +1%, while approximately 38% of the days saw declines of over -1%. For the remaining 34% of bear market days, the price change stayed within a moderate range of ±1% from the previous day. During bull markets, Bitcoin enjoyed price increases of over +1% on 33% of the days, with declines of more than -1% on 26% of the days. The rest, about 41%, were days of minor fluctuations within ±1%.
The intriguing symmetry in these daily price distributions highlights the challenges day traders face, as noted by Checkmate, who pointed out that “day traders are attempting to beat a three-sided coin, with a third of all days rallying, a third selling-off, and a third doing nothing.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin has exhibited a sudden surge in bullish momentum. Over the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency’s price jumped more than 5%, reaching the $60,900 mark. As the market watches closely, the upcoming Q4 period could be a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, bringing back much-needed optimism and possibly significant gains for investors.
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