#SaudiArabia #MohammedBinSalman #KingSalman #CrownPrince #RoyalSuccession #HouseOfSaud #SaudiPolitics #AbsoluteMonarchy
As the health of King Salman of Saudi Arabia continues to wane, the spotlight intensifies on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), poised at the threshold of kingship. This transition layers added complexity to the already intricate machinery of Saudi succession, notably in the selection of who will step into the shoes of the crown prince once MbS ascends. Delineated by the kingdom’s 1992 basic law of governance, the selection process mandates a choice from the male descendants of Ibn Saud, focusing on the “most upright” amongst them. However, a 2017 amendment introduced by King Salman stipulates that no king and crown prince duo can originate from the same branch of Ibn Saud’s lineage, a rule that, while intended to widen the pool, might limit MbS’s selections, possibly setting the stage for an unprecedented royal reshuffle or causing friction within the expansive House of Saud.
The selection of a successor is imbued with a level of strategy akin to a chess game, where the future stability and unity of the kingdom hangs in the balance. MbS’s potential to bypass the 2017 amendment and appoint one of his brothers as the crown prince looms as a contentious move that could provoke dissent among the various powerful factions within the royal family, especially those already sidelined like the branches of Nayef and Abdullah. These decisions carry weight far beyond familial relations, threatening to alienate significant branches of the House of Saud, highlighting the delicate balance of power, tradition, and modern political strategy that characterizes Saudi succession.
Meanwhile, the absence of a deputy crown prince since 2017 speaks volumes about the centralization of power under King Salman and MbS. This consolidation speaks to a broader strategy of ensuring the crown prince’s unchallenged ascendancy and authority within the kingdom. By not appointing a deputy, King Salman may have sought to afford his son the bandwidth to fortify his own power base, free from the shadows of potential rivals or mentors within the royal lineage. This maneuvering is emblematic of a broader shift within Saudi governance, moving towards an absolute monarchy where power is highly centralized and decisions are made without the need for consensus among the wider royal family, let alone the general populace.
The political landscape that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman navigates is fraught with the dual challenge of maintaining the delicate equilibrium within the House of Saud while steering the kingdom through an era of transformative change. His eventual coronation will introduce a new chapter in Saudi politics, likely characterized by a continuation of his assertive policy style both domestically and internationally. Furthermore, his choice of crown prince—and possibly the reintroduction of the role of deputy crown prince—will significantly impact the future governance of the kingdom, signaling either a continuation of robust centralized authority or a potential pivot towards a more collaborative royal governance model. In a kingdom where royal prerogatives reign supreme, these decisions will reverberate throughout Saudi society and beyond, underscoring the interplay of tradition, ambition, and the unyielding dynamics of power within the Saudi royal family.
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