Last updated on August 8, 2023
Bitcoin has been struggling to break the resistance level at $30,000 in recent months and has instead declined towards the 100-day moving average. However, the current price is within a critical range, and a breakout could lead to a significant price movement.
On the daily chart, the 100-day moving average has acted as a support level, preventing further declines. However, the price has been unable to push above the $30,000 mark. Additionally, there is a divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, suggesting a possibility of a downside break towards the 200-day moving average around $27,000. The 200-day MA is a significant indicator that could act as support and potentially push the price higher.
If the price manages to climb back above $30,000, it could trigger a rally towards the $38,000 resistance zone in the coming weeks.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s situation looks intriguing. After a correction in July, the price has reached the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, which serve as crucial support. If the price finds support at these levels, it could enter a new bullish phase and surge higher. However, a break below this range could lead to a decline towards the $25,000 support level in the short term.
On-chain analysis shows that the “Exchange Whale Ratio,” which measures the proportion of large inflows from whales compared to total inflows on a cryptocurrency exchange, is at its lowest level. Historically, when this ratio rebounds, it tends to affect the price of Bitcoin adversely. Therefore, if the ratio increases, signaling a surge in whale activity on exchanges, it could indicate a potential downward trend in BTC’s price.
While the Exchange Whale Ratio has been declining since Q4 2022 without a significant drop in BTC’s price, it is important to monitor this ratio closely as it could bounce back following historical patterns.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently in a critical range, and a breakout could lead to a substantial price movement. The 100-day moving average acts as support on the daily chart, while the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels serve as crucial support on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the Exchange Whale Ratio suggests a potential downward trend in BTC’s price if it rebounds. Traders and investors should closely monitor these technical and on-chain indicators to make informed decisions.
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